Monex Global Retail Investor Survey Report

December 2020

Summary

1. Global Survey Results: Survey of Retail Investors in Japan, U.S. and China (H.K.)
   
   
   （1-1）The forecast DI (*) for world stock markets remained roughly flat in Japan and the U.S., but rose significantly in China (Hong Kong).
   
   We asked retail investors in each region about their views on the world stock market for the coming three months. Among retail investors in China (Hong Kong), the DI rose significantly from the previous survey (conducted in December 2019). Among retail investors in Japan, the DI remained unchanged. Among U.S. investors, the DI remained roughly flat, or more accurately, fell 1 point. The reason for the rise in the DI among investors in China (Hong Kong) may be a slight calming of the U.S.-China trade war compared to the previous year.
   
   

   [The forecast DI for world stock markets]

   [Japan]	Dec. 2019: 14 → Dec. 2020: 14 (±0 points)
   [U.S.]	Dec. 2019: 29 → Dec. 2020: 28 (-1 points)
   [China (H.K.)]	Dec. 2019:-4 → Dec. 2020: 37 (+41 points)

   
   
   
   * DI (diffusion index): The percentage of respondents who answered, “will rise or improve” minus the percentage of respondents who answered “will fall or deteriorate.”
   
   
   (1-2) Expectations for U.S. stocks were the highest among retail investors in all three regions.
   
   Retail investors in all three regions answered that the U.S. is the region with the greatest likelihood of stock price appreciation in the coming three months. Although COVID-19 cases are continuing to rise in the U.S., many investors appear to expect stock prices to continue to rise in the U.S.
   
   

   [Expectations for stock markets in the coming three months]

   [Japan]	U.S.: 52.3％	Europe/U.K.: 4.3％	Asia excl. Japan: 22.8％	Japan: 20.7％
   [U.S.]	U.S.: 63.4％	Europe/U.K.: 5.3％	Asia excl. Japan: 25.6％	Japan: 5.7％
   [China (H.K.)]	U.S.: 50.6％	Europe/U.K.: 2.1％	Asia excl. Japan: 42.0％	Japan: 5.3％

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   (1-3) The 2021 U.S. market outlook: In all countries, most investors expect that the Dow Jones high will be $30,000 to $33,000.
   
   We asked investors in Japan, the U.S. and China (Hong Kong) about their outlook for 2021 highs and lows for the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average. In all countries, most investors expect that the 2021 high will be $30,000 to $33,000. Looking at the outlook for 2021 lows, most investors in Japan and the U.S. expect that the low will be between $23,000 and $25,000. Among investors in China (Hong Kong), most investors expect that the low will be between $19,000 and $23,000. At the end of November, the New York Dow Jones Industrial Average was $29,638. Investors in all countries appear to be concerned about market corrections to a certain degree.
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   (1-4) The percentage of retail investors in Japan investing in cryptocurrency reached its highest level.
   
   We asked retail investors about much discussed cryptocurrency such as Bitcoin, with respect to their experience with it and their willingness to invest in it. The percentage of retail investors replying that they had already invested in cryptocurrency was 16.2% in Japan and 21.0% in the U.S., the highest level in each country since this question was introduced in June 2017. The percentage of investors in China (Hong Kong) who had invested in cryptocurrency fell slightly from the previous survey.
   
   
   
   
   
   
Results


2. Japan Specific Quarterly Survey Results: Survey of Retail Investors in Japan
   
   
   (2-1) The Chinese stock DI rose significantly.
   
   The Japanese retail investors' outlook (DI) for Japanese and U.S. stocks for the coming three months fell, but the DI for Chinese stocks rose significantly to 36 from 9 in the previous survey. The rise in the Chinese stock DI was the largest since March 2020. Expectations for Chinese stocks appear to be rising as the Chinese economy is recovering from the slowdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic earlier than that of other economies.
   
   

   [Japanese Stocks DI]	Sep. 2020: 14 → Dec. 2020: 10 (-4 points)
   [U.S. Stocks DI]	Sep. 2020: 50 → Dec. 2020: 29 (-21 points)
   [China stocks DI]	Sep. 2020: 9 → Dec. 2020: 36 (+27points)

   
   
   
   
   
   
   (2-2) The highest percentage of investors, 42%, forecast the 2021 high for the Nikkei average to be about 25,000 yen to 28,000 yen.
   
   We asked Japanese retail investors about their forecast of 2021 highs and lows of the Nikkei Stock Average. The percentage forecasting that the 2021 high of the Nikkei Stock Average would be 25,000 yen to 28,000 yen was highest, at 42%. The percentage forecasting a 2021 low of 19,000 yen to 21,000 yen was highest, at 32%. At the end of November, the Nikkei Stock Average stood at 26,433 yen. The forecast high is commonly understood to be about 1,000 yen higher from the current Nikkei Stock price, which reveals that many retail investors expect that higher prices will be limited. On the other hand, the forecast low is expected to be over 5,000 yen lower, which shows that many retail investors are concerned about significant corrections are coming up.
   
   
   
   
   
   

Japan

United States

Hong Kong

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